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First off, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Joe. I have been a lifelong Phillies fan and the majority of my posts will most likely be about them. I own season tickets with the Figtin and Mikey over in section 144.
My primary sport is most definitely Baseball with football being a close second. Hockey and Basketball are far back but I will still watch them regularly. Other than the Phillies I mainly follow the Bears in Football for some reason that I can't explain. You'll see me occasionally making posts regarding them.
So...to Start.
Recently I got into an argument on a Message Board(Yeah, I know. Why Bother right?) about every Phillies fan most favorite Shortstop Jose Reyes. The argument was basically this random zealot Mets fan claiming that Jose Reyes was "no doubt the best Shortstop in Baseball." After having heard this argument about 2,432 times I decided to actually look at "The most exciting player in Baseball's" numbers. I was SHOCKED with what I discovered.
I took Jose Reyes's numbers and compared them to what I consider his equal counterpart on the Phillies, Shane Victorino.
So without further ado, the numbers with some commentary from me:
Jose Reyes had 681 at bats in the 2007 campaign. Of those AB's he batted .280, had 57 RBI, 12 Home runs, 12 Triples, and 78 stolen bases. He had a dependable .354 OBP.
In only 456 AB's Shane Victorino batted .281, had 46 RBI, 12 Home Runs, 3 Triples and 37 Stolen bases. Shane Victorino basically had 50% less AB's than Jose Reyes and put up numbers that ALMOST RIVALED HIM!
Ok...so, Met's fans will soon point to his Stolen Bases and claim that the terror that he wreaks on the base paths bring an intangible to the game that makes his team better.
So...let's look at those numbers shall we. He walked 77 times. He had 191 hits. Subtract his homeruns and triples which is 24 combined. That is 167 times on base when he could possibly steal. Plus walks is 244 times. He stole 99 TIMES! Basicaly 1/2 the time on base he was on base. Of those 99 times he was thrown out more than a 1/4 of the time. That's not even counting times when he got on base and was hit over, where the inning immediately ended or when he scored on a hit of some sort.
Victorino had a much more pedestrian looking stolen base campaign last year when compared to Jose Reyes until you look deeper at the numbers.
Shane had 128 hits. Subtract his 12 Home runs and 3 triples and add his 37 walks and that gives you about 150 times on base when he had a legitimate chance to steal. Of those 150 times, he stole 37 bases and was thrown out four. FOUR! He was successful 90% of his stolen base attempts. Also, he only stole 41 times out of 150 chances on base. He stole only 1/3 of the time as opposed to Reyes 1/2.
So I ask you...Is Reyes the great hope for the Mets and the "Most Exciting player" in Baseball or is he just a average hitter and above average fielder who has no sense when on Base.
If Jose Reyes is the best shortstop in the game than that puts Shane right up there as one the best outfielders in the game, and I know we are not going to say that.
I rest my Case
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10 comments:
So by using only select Offensive stats for a down year for Reyes, totally discounting defensive skills and comparing him to Shane (a player who mans a different position, and is a power hitter, not a leadoff hitter) you arrived at this brilliant conclusion?
You couldn't possibly have made more errors in your logi. Congrats on this being your first post. May it be your last.
dumbest post i've ever read and i dont even like the Mets. You took a select time frame when Reyes had the worst slump of his career, and compared him to an outfielder, who shifts positions, and plays in a a womens shoebox. And then you didn't even talk about his rediculous defense or any of his numbers from the 2 previous years.
But if trying to convince yourself that Victorino is better than Reyes helps you sleep better at night, so be it.
Again...dumbest post I've ever read..and this blog is terrible as well.
Over the last two years, Reyes has produced a run every 7.70 plate appearances; Victorino takes 7.97 plate appearance per run scored.
Reyes' total bases + walks + HBP per plate appearance, or "Total-total bases" per PA is .502. Victorino's is .471
In other words, Reyes - batting leadoff in a pitchers' park - produces more runs than Victorino - batting 2 or 6 in a hitters' park.
You normally also expect higher offensive production from your RF than your SS since SS is much more of a specialist defensive position.
The conclusion? Your argument is baseless.
Ok...I will approach each of these comments in turn.
1) Your argument should be invalidated immedietely for referring to Shane Victorino as a Power hitter, but I'm not going to ignore your other point.
Next, I don't know why everyone keeps acting like other than last year Jose Reyes has been destroying the ball.
If you look, last year stayed consistent with his 3 year average totals. He had a slight down year when it came to RBI's and AVG. That's about it.
I'm not discounting his defensive skills at all. That's why I didn't mention them. If he couldn't play defense he shouldn't be a Shortstop anyway.
2)I already answered this "slump" claim in the response above so I'll avoid doing it again. I'll address your comparision gripe below. Jose Reyes plays great defense. I'm not arguing that fact. I am saying he is not the offensive juggernaut that is often claimed.
3)I'll address your concerns in the below wrapup.
So, maybe I should have pointed this out. I'm not comparing these two players thinking they should be the exact same. What I am saying is that it is sad that your "offensive sparkplug" puts up numbers that can even be compared to a toolsy outfielder who could barely make the starting squad and was acquired from the rule 5 draft. Outfielders should normally put up better numbers being outfielders but one of your most potent offensive threats should be INCOMPARABLE to a guy who used to be a 4th outfielder. This isn't rocket science.
Also, all three of you mention his "slump". As I mentioned last season was more in line with his career numbers than 2006 season.
Please keep the comments coming.
Who is calling him an "offensive juggernaut"? He is not A-rod nor is he supposed to be! He is an offensive spark-plug; Getting on base, working a walk, stealing bases, distracting pitchers...he worked like 5 balks last year (two while he was on 3rd base!). These are things that your cherry picked stats won't show.
Why don't you just compare apples to apples. Look at Reyes' first 3 full seasons stats compared to your "mvp" rollins. He is almost universally better in every category! Do some research before you start spouting this nonsense.
Reyes will be better than Rollins after both their careers are over. You can keep the "superior" hitting Victorino too...also an ex-met.
I didn't use any "Cherry Picked" stats. I used RBI, BA, Walks,HRs and SBs. It's not like I'm using his AVG with runners on First and Third between the 3rd and 7th inning. THAT is a "cherry picked" stat.
I'm sorry if I don't use some obscure sabermetric stat. I could use Sabermetrics to prove Danny Sandoval is a better Second Baseman than Chase Utley.
Next, are you seriously giving me BALKS? Who's cherry picking stats now? Two of those "balks" came in one game against Armando Benitez and I still don't believe those were Balks.
Next, walks. You are aware that after looking at his numbers he has struck out nearly TWICE as many times as he has walked? That's pretty pedestrian.
Lastly, I don't recall ever comparing him or mentioning Jimmy Rollins one time in anything here. What research was I supposed to do in regards to this matter. Also, if If I were comparing him to Rollins what difference would it make how Rollins was in his first five seasons. I didn't say the "best 24 year old Shortstop." All I mention was "best Shortstop now." AS A LEADOFF MAN Jimmy beat Jose Reyes in almost every statistical category except steals. He also won the Gold Glove.
Maybe one day Jose Reyes will be the best Shortstop in baseball. I am just sick of all the nut riding on him. You would think from listening to Met's fans that the position of Shortstop Starts and Stops with Jose Reyes. I wouldn't even say he's the best YOUNG Shortstop honestly. After last years campaign Troy Tulowitzki might have taken that Crown from him. Though we can't forget Hanley Ramirez...
Well, that's enough for now.
LOL
Didn't use cherry picked stats?
1) you are not comparing guy who play the same position or bats in the same position...and just for the 2007 season.
2) Obviously, if you bat leadoff, there are going to be less opportunities for RBI's due to, you know, the lack of people on base!
3) HR's? Reyes is not considered a power hitter, although he does have some pop. Hitting the ball in the air is what started his slump in sept. He hits the ball on the ground he always has a chance to beat it out.
4) Avg. does not paint the whole picture of a hitter's mettle. Try OBP & SLG next time.
5) Steals? 3 straight years with 60+ steals? First shortstop in history to do that.
This is a weak argument. Reyes' speed & over all defensive skills make him a better all around short stop than Troy or Hanley who are more known for their power. Hitting is not everything. It's obvious that you are a biased philly fan. Look at all the stats on offense & defense, and compare Reyes to someone who plays SS.
Also you didn't even add Runs to the equation! As a leadoff hitter that is prob. the most important stat.
Wow Joe. Good work. You really pissed off a bunch of Mets fans. It's funny how much hate they have, they even attack the MVP of the NL because they still feel slighted by their team. Collapse!
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